Could The Real Estate Market Bottom In Early 2008

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Real Estate Recovery May Happen Soon!

The information in this article is merely an opinion. It uses U.S. Census Bureau data on New Home Sales (not existing homes or non single family homes) to derive a proprietary thesis. No statement within this article should be viewed as a suggestion or statement to buy or sell real estate for investment purposes or any other purpose! The data was garnered from sources believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed.

Data from the U.S. Census Bureau may indicate that a bottom could occur in the real estate market as it relates to single family new homes as early as the first quarter of 2008. Though rather dismal data could be released in its first quarter report in April of 2008, the myriad of doomsayers that are bound to emerge may be the preamble to a stark recovery. By July of 2008 data may clearly show that the first quarter was indeed the bottom and that the real estate market is off to a healthy and speedy recovery after making its bottom!

And wouldn’t that be nice? Most real estate agents will tell you that the slump has gone on long enough!

Near the end of November the National Association of Realtor’s will release its third quarter report for 2007, which will show prices and sales in major metropolitan areas of new single family homes. The government, notoriously slow as always, will probably take a bit longer. But here is there data that they do have right now:

We can see from the data and the associated graph that sales are down considerably on a year over year basis. We should also note that the 2Q2007 figure of 243 is preliminary, which is why it is italicized. You can view the actual data here.

We utilized a proprietary Data Choices algorithm to analyze this data. We are ignoring existing home sales for this report. The first item we noted was that third quarter and fourth quarter data appears skewed – which led us to believe predictions in this short time frame would be difficult. Nevertheless we continued to extrapolate data and our initial results seems to indicate a bottom in February of 2008.

As with all predictions they are subject to being grossly wrong and are only opinions. Nevertheless, just as with our Strong Dollar Project, we will continue to monitor and update the situation. If we are right about the bottom we will certainly indicate that in future reports. And if we are wrong then the whole world will know!

As always we stand on integrity and hard work.

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